How I’m making an impact on the 2018 Congressional race

Candidates to support now

Honorable mentions

High value long shots

Stay away

Check back in September

My approach in detail

Forecasting the National Environment

It’s pretty rare for the party of the sitting President to gain ground in a Congressional election
The Challenging Party has performed the President’s party by a median of 5.7 points since 1968; this goes up to 7.9 points if you only look at non Presidential cycles.

In more-or-less neutral congressional years without a big wave for one party or the other, FairVote finds the incumbency advantage has recently been somewhere between 3 percent and 7 percent.

But in wave years, the parties’ incumbents’ fortunes sharply diverge. In 2010 and 2014, for instance, Democratic incumbents barely had any advantage at all (0.9 percent and 0.46 percent). And in 2006 and 2008 — two anti-GOP wave years — the Republican incumbent advantage shrank to 2 percent, while Democrats’ rose quite high.

Potential scenarios for the 2018 election

The scenarios I used to forecast the 2018 election

Creating district-level estimates to identify potential close races

Different National scenarios have the potential to shift the competitve ground quite a bit.
Remianing cash on hand for primary candidates who have lost still counts towards the race overall.
Not all districts labels appear due to space constraints.

Risks to this approach

Notes and data sources

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